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15:30 - 16:10
Benjamin Franklin said that the only certainties in life are death and taxes. Not one of us can predict everything that happens to us each day with 100% certainty.
Despite all this uncertainty, we face continual pressure to be certain… especially when it comes to forecasting. Well, that pressure is going nowhere. Instead, we must learn to accept this paradox and learn new techniques to achieve success. One such technique is probabilistic forecasting.
Sounds scary, right? Well, the amazing news is that you don’t need to be a statistician. You don’t even need to be good at math! All you need is a small amount of data and a calculator (a simple one at that).
In this talk we’ll explore how to use your historical data and calculate the probability of any future outcome. We’ll also answer some of the frequently asked questions about probabilistic forecasts. You’ll also have time to ask your own questions on the topic.